If Manipulation Ended
As of today, September 16, 2025, silver's spot price sits around $43 per ounce, while gold hovers near $3,700. These prices are heavily influenced by banks and paper markets, where futures and derivatives create massive leverage that suppresses precious metals’ true value.
Estimates show the paper-to-physical ratio for silver is staggering anywhere from around 250:1 all the way up to 378:1, meaning for every ounce of real silver, there's 250-378 times that in paper claims traded on exchanges like COMEX. For gold, it's 100:1 to 250:1 or higher. This imbalance keeps prices artificially low, as most trading is in "paper" that rarely demands physical delivery.
If restrictions in the paper market are lifted - say, through regulatory crackdowns or a collapse of the bond market - explosive revaluations could be next. Possibly even by this years end. In my view, silver could potentially rocket to $200-$500 per ounce or more, reflecting actual scarcity amid industrial demand from solar, EVs, and tech. A severe collapse of bond prices could push gold past $10,000, as central banks and investors scramble to convert their paper to the real stuff. We've seen hints in past squeezes, like 1980 and 2011, but this time, with supply deficits, tariffs and geopolitical chaos, somehow it feels primed for a bigger unwind.
Adding to the economic uncertainty, 2025 has seen significant turmoil in the banking sector with hundreds of branch closures across the US. More than 320 branches were marked for closure in just the first 13 weeks alone. As of June 30th, net closures were already in the hundreds. Major players aren't immune: Chase has shuttered 23 branches this year and Wells Fargo has closed even more, with 131 locations shut down so far in 2025. These closures highlight vulnerabilities in the financial system that could accelerate a flight to tangible assets like silver, gold and Bitcoin.
Although we do get better prices for our sterling wire at the mill than the public can get at a coin or bullion dealer, the spot prices affect everyone and we’ve already had to raise our prices 3 times this year and are going to be forced to raise them again very soon.
Historically, the silver-to-gold ratio tells the real tale. Ancient ratios were fixed low - 12:1 in Rome, 15:1 in early U.S. law - mirroring earth's natural 8-10:1 balance. Over the centuries, it has averaged 40-60:1, but spiked to as much as 100:1 in manipulations like the 1930s. Today, it's at about 86:1 - meaning that even at these crazy prices we’re seeing today, silver is still undervalued and could easily go as high as $100 per ounce or more and it could happen rapidly.
This is just my opinion from over 22 years of sterling silver being our primary metal for chainmaille rings. This is not financial advice – As they say, you need to do your own research.
For a great take on where prices could be heading if the paper game continues to crumble, I strongly encourage everyone who relies on silver and precious metals for their business to watch this video: https://youtu.be/-DcnFX_DPjQ?si=dNorymO2ShvSWijS.
-- Gary
